Trump In Trouble In Swing States

For months, both my colleague David Smith and I have been saying that Donald Trump is on track to lose next year and that the GOP would be facing a slaughter down ballot. David laid out his reasons in an article using actual votes in his analysis. I did the same using polling data. Instead of countering our arguments, we both have been met with cries of “fake news”, “fake polls” and accusations of disloyalty to the president. In my case, I was accused of being a Democrat!

This morning Bloomberg reports:

The president has sustained double-digit declines in net approval rate in nearly every state that could be considered a tossup, and more voters disapprove than approve of him in states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, Pennsylvania and Ohio that Trump won in 2016. Some of the biggest swings are in the southwestern U.S., where the president’s focus on hardening immigration policy may be hurting him. According to the poll, Trump saw a 30-point swing toward disapproval in New Mexico and a 26-point negative swing in Arizona.

Voters have also soured on the president in states with key Senate races for Republicans, like Susan Collins’ re-election bid in Maine (where Trump has seen a 21-point swing in the wrong direction) and Cory Gardner’s defense of his seat in Colorado (where Trump is now 12 percentage points under water).

The White House and Trump’s campaign have insisted they’re not worried about recent polls, and say their data shows the president still prevailing against an eventual Democratic nominee. And presidents almost always see a decline in popularity after their inauguration.

I don’t agree with Bloomberg’s assertion that the president’s tough talk about immigration is the reason his numbers have gone down in Arizona and New Mexico. Trump’s problem is that he is all talk and under his watch the border has collapsed. As far as the White House not being concerned about the polls, we will know in a few days. If more pollsters are fired, that will be confirmation that they are worried. Finally, I keep seeing a comparison between Trump and Obama’s approval rating at the same time of their respective terms but it fails to consider one important factor: Obama could afford to lose 3.5 million votes. Trump cannot afford to lose one vote.